Daily Insight

U.S. stocks took their expected beating yesterday, pushing the S&P 500 1.8% below the July 15 mark – thus making a new multi-year low; a two-year low to be exact. By mid-day it appeared the market wanted to hold above that level – 10,962 on the Dow -- but it was not so as half of the day’s damage was done in the final 90 minutes of trading.

The Dow Industrial Average lost 504 points Monday, just four points shy of the October 19, 1987 crash. The difference is that in percentage terms the decline meant 22.6% was shaved from the index back in 1987; today such a drop amounts to 4.4% -- although you wouldn’t know it by the way its getting reporting.

Market Activity for September 15 2008

Financial shares got clocked, falling 10.4%, largely driven by AIG shares, but BAC also pushed the financial index lower due to the Merrill purchase premium. Worries over AIG pressured the market all day as questions rose over their ability to raise capital; however, after the market close the company received approval to access $20 billion of capital in its subsidiaries to free up liquidity to buy time for that capital raise. Now they have other issues due to ratings downgrades that were issued late last night – this is the news of the day and we’ll touch on the topic a bit more in a moment.

All 10 major industry groups were hit hard yesterday, but along with the financial group energy was the other major decliner, losing 6.87% as oil prices fell 5.41% to $95.71 per barrel.

This morning crude is down further, off another 2.85% to the $92 handle. I guess people are thinking these companies will have trouble making money at $90 per barrel, or they fear crude will move to $70. If so, energy-company profits will still post strong results and in the meantime it effectively removes a major burden from the consumer. I’ve even heard people state that the drop in energy will help those that bought more house than they could afford pay their mortgage now. That obviously is taking things too far.

But back to AIG, the ratings agencies downgraded AIG last night which may trigger another $13 billion in collateral calls. AIG needs capital and they need it now as they also were sucked into the leverage trap, big time. The Treasury and Federal Reserve were in discussions last night – bringing JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs in to round up these funds.

The authorities must not be that worried about it though, since they have not chosen to tear down the regulations that keeps mountains of private equity out of the available capital pool. To my understanding current regulations state that anything larger than a 25% stake in an insurance company means the private equity firm is now treated like a bank; regulated like a bank. You can forget capital to the rescue from this group so long as this is the case. According to reports though, without this regulatory hurdle private-equity capital wants in.

Credit Markets Increasingly Jittery

The rush to find, or keep capital was evident by the action in the effective fed funds rate, which jumped to 6.00% at one point yesterday until the Federal Reserve engaged in operations to bring the rate lower -- this is the rate at which private banks lend balances to other depository institutions overnight. As you all may know this is also the rate the Federal Reserve targets to set their monetary policy agenda. But that is just a target, as the chart below illustrates, the effective fed funds rate had jumped as there is both a scrambling for liquidity and an occupying (unwillingness to let it go) of liquidity for those that currently have excess. The target fed funds rate stands at 2.00%.

The TED spread also shows the state of risk aversion yesterday as the index jumped – not unlike during other events during this period of credit-market chaos. For new readers, this is the spread between three-month Treasury bills and LIBOR. Bottom line, when the spread widens it indicates investors’ and institutions’ increased desire for safe investments. When it narrows it illustrates a willingness to take on more risk as default risk, or the perception of which, decreases

The Press

I don’t want to make light of what is occurring, this is serious stuff – as the above graphs help to illustrate, but the way the financial press, along with the rest of the media, is playing this thing has gotten way out of hand. The concern is that it drives people to think their bank accounts are not safe.

What the media is doing right now even stuns me. Terms like “horror” on Wall Street and these developments “shake individuals to their core” were used yesterday and last night.

Horror? Shaking individuals to their core? Only if these ignorant media participants tip off a panic will people be shaken to their core. Heck, CNBC is running a “special” each night – all night – entitled “Is Your Money Safe?” Beyond the headline of this “special” the mood and alarm exhibited by these people is astounding. One must realize though that they are receiving the best ratings in their history; then you understand the alarmism, which of course causes more people to tune in.

Capital

We’ll also point out something else that is hugely important right now, and gets zero attention. The economy, the system as a whole, is stuffed with capital. There is no shortage of it, but there is an unwillingness to use it in the current environment, or large amounts are being blocked out by regulation as we touched on above.

Let’s run through some numbers. Huge amounts of capital has been created and re-built over the past few years.

The New York Stock Exchange Composite has seen its market cap grow more than $7 trillion over the past few years – even with the latest 20% decline on the index.

Another $900 billion has been created via after-tax corporate profits since 2001. And this figure is adjusted for inventories and capital consumption so there’s no chicanery in this number. (It’s tough to read but the graph shows an increase of $888 billion.

Another $1.2 trillion has been added in real disposable income – that’s inflation adjusted. This is not all counted as capital, as most of this money gets spent, but we know that a decent percentage has been added to the markets and is likely available on the sideline right now.

In fact, money market accounts currently stand at $3.1 trillion – as of the latest data – which is enough to buy 27% of the S&P 500.

Point of all of this is things could be much worse. At some point the smog of uncertainty and worry clears. In time, the housing market will stabilize – household creation and demographics will make it so on its own – at which point the write-downs will cease. (What isn’t helping things in this regard, and is actually exacerbating the situation, are rather dumb accounting rules in my view that make firms mark assets to market when in fact there is no market for much of this stuff. Why mark to where it can be sold in a distressed market? Better to net present value this stuff that have 10-20 year lives)

And this is what investors should be thinking about. No, it is not a time to be a hero, the market is in a tenuous state, but this is when longer-run opportunities present themselves for those who can look past this all – it’s tough though, I know.

I’ve bifurcated the letter again, feeling the need to touch on the current state of things and we’ve gotten long. Read on if you care about yesterday’s economic data.

On the economic front, the New York Fed reported that manufacturing activity (as measured by the Empire Manufacturing index) contracted in September after bouncing to back to expansion in August. The index slipped to negative 7.41 from positive 2.77.

Still, there were some positives as the prices paid index came down big time, new orders accelerated and shipments were positive.

This rise in new orders shows the Empire’s decline in August was not a marked deterioration. Further, the index for business conditions six month out jumped to 43.11 from 34.58 in August.

Also, keep in mind that nation-wide manufacturing activity remains right at the point that separates expansion from contraction – point is it is holding up remarkably well during this period if economic weakness and credit-market troubles. The New York area has been hit hard by the credit troubles, which helps explain why factory activity in the Northeast region looks worse than for the country as a whole.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department reported industrial production fell a large 1.1% after two months of increase. The drivers were a 11.9% plunge in auto production and a 3.2% decline in utility usage – due to extremely mild weather. These two segments account for 15% of total industrial production.

Overall, every segment declined in August, save information processing. It was a pretty miserable report, but the large decline was vastly due to the auto and utility realities. Auto inventories have been trimmed substantially and this segment should provide a boost for the current month. (Auto sales remain weak from a historical perspective, but we did see sales bounce in August as automakers’ incentives were successful.)

This morning we get the Consumer Price Index for August and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee – the group that sets monetary policy) meeting, which should be interesting. Odds are the FOMC will cut fed funds down to 1.75%. The minority view is that they’ll leave it at 2.00% and use other ways to inject liquidity.


Have a great day!


Brent Vondera, Senior Analyst

Daily Insight

U.S. stocks ended essentially flat on Friday as we received conflicting economic reports, people waited to see what effect Hurricane Ike would have on energy infrastructure and traders waited to see how the Lehman story would play out over the weekend. (We now know we are seeing a fundamental ship in the financial system, one that will be painful in the short-term, but helpful longer-term as the most fit institutions survive.)

Energy, basic material and utility shares were the sectors that gained ground Friday. The other seven major industry groups closed lower led by financial shares, which declined 1.06%.

Market Activity for September 12 2008
I won’t expand on what occurred in Friday’s trading session as we must move to things more important – the developments over the weekend.

We’ll divide this morning’s letter into two parts. First, we’ll discuss the events of the weekend and I’ll do my best to sum it up – so much occurred. This will be followed by commentary on Friday’s economic data – if anyone cares to read on after getting through the developments of the past two days.

We went into the weekend with the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve helping to negotiate a deal for Lehman Brothers to be purchased. Their real estate assets had eroded to the point they couldn’t use them as collateral for the PDCF (one of the Fed’s newer discount window facilities that allowed broker-dealers to borrow from the Fed) and it was either find a buyer or file for bankruptcy – as you may all know by now the latter occurred.

And as a result, there was a big game of chicken being played. Bids were due at 5:00ET Saturday, but nothing was accomplished, as BAC and Barclays demanded the government backstop the deal in order for them to take on Lehman’s troubled assets. (One had to wonder also if the buyer would get downgraded as a result of taking on these assets.)

At the same time the Fed and Treasury stood by their statement that they would not assist financially, so you had a stare down. This is what the Bear Stearns deal has brought us – even if it were necessary prior to PDCF (Primary Dealer Credit Facility) being set up.

Treasury and Federal Reserve Approach

The government was attempting to set up a “bad” bank – as they were terming it – that would contain $85 billion of Lehman’s poor-performing real-estate assets and many of the major financial institutions would be tasked to provide capital to this “bad” bank. This will help to unwind these trades in an orderly fashion. They tried something similar earlier this year, but it received the cold shoulder then as well. It appears we’re going to get something like that in the end, but it didn’t help with getting a Lehman deal done.

Digressing a bit and just to touch on trading – it appears we’ve got a rolling short on our hands as hedge funds, speculators, whomever, bring one financial firm down only to move onto the next.

Just look at AIG for instance. AIG will have to raise additional capital if downgraded, which seems quite likely. But this shouldn’t be a problem as they have several healthy businesses that are marketable and can raise huge sums of cash – their aircraft leasing business to name one. AIG has also gone to the Fed for a bridge loan until one or several units can be sold.

Yesterday, Sunday, banks and brokerage firms began preparing for a Lehman bankruptcy filing after BofA and Barclays pulled out of the Lehman talks.

Purpose of the exercise was to reduce risk associated with bankruptcy by netting, or matching, derivatives contracts involving Lehman.

The good news – no government assistance -- is that this will force the market to adapt to the new environment and indeed much of this is underway. At least for now, the potential players in future transactions will not assume government financial assistance. But this will involve short-term pain, and a very difficult trading session today for sure – that’s how it works.

Unfortunately, this mess will lead to re-regulation. We hear how the decision to deregulate the industry is the reason for the financial-sector turmoil – please. This deregulation led to much lower commissions and meant lower transaction costs for the individual investor. The problem was the Fed kept rates way too low for too long and it encouraged a massive amount of leverage to take place as institutions borrowed at very low short-term rates to invest in longer-term securities. This helped them to offset the lower commissions from deregulation. In the end, this will be viewed as a monetary policy mistake.

OK, now back to the weekend developments. Within all that was going on something unexpected occurred, Bank of America and Merrill Lynch apparently found reason to talk and $29 per share is the official number as they will buy Merrill. (This is a stock deal and since BofA shares are down roughly 12% the deal is closer to $24 per share, or a 40% premium over Friday’s closing price.) BAC is either making some very smart long-run decisions or some really dumb ones (remember they bought Countrywide too). One wonders what BAC sees in Merrill’s balance sheet to offer a premium like that. That at least could be very good news that is overlooked right now.

In another development, the Fed will accept an even wider range of collateral now, including equities, in order to facilitate the leverage wind down.

The Federal Reserve continues to increase the risk to their balance sheet. This will likely have an adverse effect on the dollar. (To that balance sheet issue though, at these markdowns the Fed should be ok.)

It terms of this rolling short situation, the Bank America/Merrill deal should help to contain this trade. This is likely why Merrill was committed to selling itself this weekend. Those that went into the weekend with short positions on Merrill will get clobbered this morning and will cause others to think twice.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are now the only independent broker dealers left – the model is in a state of catastrophe and they may look to sell too.

This all, like so many things over the past several years, is hugely historic.

Stock-index futures are down big this morning, but as of the current indication the Dow will open about 3.0% lower and roughly 4% on the S&P 500. If we close at those levels, I’d call it a moral victory.

Oil Prices

These developments have completely offset the impact on oil prices from Hurricane Ike. Even though the storm took out 10 platforms in the Gulf and a large percentage of refineries will be down for some time, oil is off by 4.5% this morning to $96.80 per barrel. This is a combination of global growth concerns and hedge funds, among others, forced to sell to raise cash.

We’ve often talked about how business and consumer loan growth has remained pretty healthy even as credit standards have tightened over the past year. It will be very interesting to see how the market reacts here as the availability of credit will almost surely contract due to the financial sector tightening its belt. But this is part of the adaption away from reckless behavior and into a situation that mirrors common sense and is actually sustainable.

On the economic front Friday, the Labor Department reported that the producer price index (PPI) fell 0.9% in August as a large decline in the energy component helped this month-over-month figure ease.

Yet, core PPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.2% in August and over the past 12 months this figure rose 3.6% -- an acceleration from the previous reading. Overall PPI (including everything) is up 9.6% year-over-year (YOY), a slight deceleration from last month’s reading of 9.8%. Bottom line, producer prices remain sticky even with the large drop in energy prices. Maybe the energy price trend begins to show up in the next reading, but hasn’t occurred just yet.


A component we’ve been watching to get a feel of whether inflation has become embedded is the core intermediate goods number. This involves the materials used to produce the finished good and excludes energy. The reading was up 1.7% in August, 21.7% three-month annualized and 12.5% YOY – that YOY reading actually accelerated from 10.2% in the July reading.


In a separate report, the Commerce Department reported that business inventories rose 1.1% in July – we still obviously have August and September data to get through – but this will help Q3 GDP if the trend continues – and sales rose as well, up 0.5%. I was expecting business sales to decline after rising 18% on a three-month annualized basis, but this is good news as the production needed to rebuild inventories will help economic growth offset the weak areas. One can be pretty sure though that we’ll see business sales contract when the September figure is released simply based on how hot they’ve been.

Sales are up 8.8% year-over-year and five-straight months of increase helps to illustrate that there are at least some areas of the economy that continue to perform quite well.




Lastly, Commerce reported that retail sales fell 0.3% in August, as the figure was pressured by gasoline station receipts and building material sales. Gasoline station receipts fell a large 2.5% last month on the combination of lower prices and reduced demand. Building material sales fell 2.2% -- this component has been soft for a while (for obvious reasons) – but this is a big drop.

What’s known as core retail sales – which excludes gasoline, building materials and autos (you may be asking if there is anything left) – declined 0.2%. This is the figure that flows directly into the GDP report regarding the personal consumption component and shows that the consumer will probably be of little help within Q3 GDP.

We’ll note that auto sales rose a strong 1.9% as automakers offered incentives that seemed to do the trick. This may have subtracted from other areas of the data. In any event, the overall report was weak

We’ve talked about this possibility (meaningful consumer weakness) for a couple of weeks now, as the labor market is weak and real income growth has been flat due to rising prices. On the bright side, capital expenditures data does indicate the business side of things will help to offset this weakness. As touched on above, the low inventory environment should keep production on an upward trend, which will also help. This will all depend on how the financial-sector woes play out, which is not looking good for the immediate term.

Have a great day!

Brent Vondera, Senior Analyst

Daily Insight

U.S. stocks rallied in the afternoon session, erasing a 1.7% decline that occurred right off the bat, as transportation and industrial shares turned mid-day on lower oil prices. A late-session move in financial shares also helped the indices advance. Speculation that Lehman may have found a buyer boosted those shares.

As the chart below illustrates, the S&P 500 jumped 3.1% from the session’s nadir, which had the index below the July 15 multi-year low just 30 minutes into trading.

Oil hit the $100 per barrel handle, closing the day at $100.97 and the Dollar Index ended above 80, which is a level I’ve been looking to as an escape from the danger zone – hopefully we hold onto this rally.

One has to assume oil and gasoline prices will rise from here as Hurricane Ike is headed for Houston, meaning it will track through the western edge of Gulf of Mexico production infrastructure and halt a lot of refinery operations.



Market Activity for September 11 2008
On Lehman, the news has changed a bit from yesterday afternoon as it is now being reported the Fed and Treasury are assisting the search for a buyer of the securities firm. At the top of the list, reportedly, are Bank of America, Barclays and HSBC. Supposedly, the government will not provide financial assistance, thankfully; if they get involved in one more deal we may have to start learning French.

This situation is not like Bear Stearns as Lehman is a much smaller firm and other firms have gone out of their way to say they continue to trade with Lehman. It is far from the Fannie/Freddie situation as those were government sponsored organizations. Further, the money markets don’t seem quite as worried this time around as volatility remains more mild as witnessed by the Ted Spread – the price difference between three month futures contracts for U.S. Treasury bills and three-month LIBOR (rate at which banks can borrow from one another). In short, the spread is a measure of risk aversion. A higher reading means investors and banks run for safety and a lower reading means risk-aversion has waned.

The spread has widened, but as you can see not nearly as much as prior events during this whole mess.


On the economic front, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 445,000 in the week ended September 6. The four-week average, which removes volatility, remained statistically unchanged at 440,000.

The level of claims remains elevated for the seventh-straight reading (above 430,000 during this stretch) and since the past couple of readings remain at these levels we can no longer blame the increase on the government’s plan to extend benefits – which increased the number of people available for claims and extended the period one can remain on the dole.

As a result, we should expect monthly job losses to remain in the 60,000-85,000 range, but we’ll need the next two weeks worth of claims data to have an appropriate feel for how the September job losses will turn out.

(I will repeat a comment made last week. When viewing the chart below keep in mind that civilian employment is 12 million stronger than it was 10 years ago and 32 million stronger than it was 20 years back. So not only do claims remain below the levels of the last two recessions, but adjusted for the increase in jobs it’s even lower. The current level of claims is obviously unwelcome news, but we feel the need to provide some context in light of the hysterical comments we all hear.)


In a separate report, the Labor Department reported that import prices fell 3.7% in August (that’s on a month-over-month basis) and decelerated to 16% on a year-over-year basis from a 17-year high of 21.6% in July.

A couple of things:
First, it is obviously good to see the figure decline – which was expected as we discussed yesterday on oil’s plunge from its peak and dollar strength. The petroleum products segment of the report declined 12.8% in August.
However, the ex-petro reading was not much changed on a year-over-year basis from the previous reading, up 7.5% vs. 8.0% for July. Further, industrial supplies ex-petro and ex-total fuels (two separate components) were essentially unchanged from the previous reading as well. The first is up 22% YOY and the latter 19.8% on the same basis. Those numbers were 23.3% ands 20.3% in the July report.

Point is I personally remain concerned inflation has become embedded and this data – in addition to others we’ve cited over the past couple of months – may suggest costs in areas outside of energy have not come down much. Overall, the decline in energy is very helpful, but we’ll have to wait for the September reading to get a better overall picture.

I believe my thought on inflation is a minority view, but I just see too much data that gives me question -- the NABE price survey (large business), the NFIB price survey (small business), the Cleveland Fed’s Trimmed-Mean CPI (which does not just arbitrarily take out food and energy but 16% of the most volatile components), core intermediate good within the producer price index and the ISM and NAPM price indices (manufacturing sector) all give me concern on the inflation front.



In another release, the Commerce Department stated the trade gap widened in July to $62.2 billion from $58.8 billion in June. In real terms, the trade gap still widened, although it has narrowed significantly over the past year. Real exports rose 2.0% in July as imports increased 2.2%.

For all of those who desire a narrower trade gap, we’ve often cautioned be careful for what you wish – the U.S. trade gap narrows during times of economic weakness. A wider gap shows U.S. growth is hitting on all cylinders as imports outpace exports.

The nominal (not adjusted for prices) trade gap will narrow big time when the August reading is released, reflecting a large decline in oil prices. The real trade gap may not change that much.


Today we have another morning of big data releases as August producer prices, retail sales and business inventories for July come out at 7:30CT.

Have a great weekend!

Brent Vondera, Senior Analyst

Daily Insight

U.S. stocks rose as investors snapped up energy shares that are trading at their cheapest levels in 18 months (and beyond that the lowest multiples in many years) and FedEx stated current-quarter profit would exceed their forecast, helping industrial and transportation shares.

In addition, Texas Instruments maintained their third-quarter earnings guidance, helping to assuage some concerns over tech-industry revenue growth, which sent the NASDAQ Composite higher.

That said, the benchmark indices did come off of intra-day highs, but closed on the plus side nonetheless.


Market Activity for September 10, 2008

Energy share led the advance, rising 4.12%. Basic material, information technology and industrial shares also performed well.

The news of the day was Lehman’s earnings report in which they stated a third-quarter loss of $3.9 billion as they wrote-down the value of mortgage and commercial real estate assets by $5.6 billion. The firm will also sell a majority stake in its asset-management unit, spin off its commercial real estate holdings and cut the dividend in an attempt to shore up capital and regain investor confidence – which didn’t seem to work yesterday at least as the shares were down 6.9%.

Oil

The weekly energy report showed crude-oil inventories dropped 5.8 million barrels – supplies were forecast to decline 3.5 million. Stockpiles are now eight million barrels below the five-year average. In the meantime, refinery production dropped also as operating rates fell to 78.3% (has been averaging 88%) due to Hurricane Gustav.

Crude prices fell, nevertheless, as demand for fuels (averaged over the past four weeks) declined 3.8%, according to the Energy Department; that is a significant easing. As the chart below shows, the Federal Highway Administration has miles driven down 4.7%.


The Dollar

The greenback is on fire as we’re seeing the more traditional flight-to-quality dollar trade during the current environ of risk aversion. The ECB (European Central Bank) has raised their benchmark interest rate over the past year even as economic activity has weakened – further damaging growth prospects. (Unions have much more clout in the EU – thus they are very able to push wages up as costs rise, increasing the phenomenon of wage-push inflation, something we don’t need to worry about here in the U.S. as our labor market is more free and flexible.)


That said I do believe our central bank has gone too far with its easing campaign – 3.00% fed funds would be more appropriate in my view – but the freer labor market dynamics here in the states has granted us more flexibility with policy.

We were without an economic release yesterday. Well, we did get mortgage applications for the week ended September 5, but that isn’t a major release. Those apps rose 9.5%, following a 7.5% increase in the prior week. Hopefully, we see this trend continue – fixed mortgage rates will fall next week and that should help to some extent.

This morning we get back to it as all eyes will be on initial jobless claims and import prices. The trend in jobless claims is not looking particularly good, so I wouldn’t expect an inspiring number. Then again, maybe we will see some easing in claims as the government’s program that extended benefits wears off.

Import prices should fall – on a month-over-month basis – as the dollar continues to strengthen (that reduces our cost of imports) and lower oil prices will have a large effect on the reading. Still, ex-petroleum import prices are up 8% year-over-year, so we may not see the overall easing that we’re all hoping far.

We’ll also get the July trade balance and the Treasury’s monthly budget statement. The budget deficit has widened this year as the rebate check scheme combined with weak growth has sent revenues lower, yet spending has jumped. That’s too bad because we had driven the budget deficit down to the low level of 1.2% of GDP last year. In any event, the 2008 fiscal deficit is on schedule to come in at $450 billion, or 3% of GDP, which is manageable – the long-term average is 2.5%.

This morning the NYSE will schedule a moment of silence at 9:46 ET – the time American Airlines Flight 11 crashed into the North Tower of the WTC seven years ago.



Brent Vondera, Senior Analyst

Daily Insight

Stocks slid yesterday led by energy, basic material and financial shares as the Dow erased just about all of Monday’s gain and the S&P 500 was pushed back to a level that is just above the July 15 multi-year low – the index endured its steepest drop since Feb 2007.

Financials led the declines, falling 6.6% yesterday, as a 45% drop in Lehman Brothers shares led the index that tracks these stocks lower.

Energy shares fell 6.4% as the decline in oil continues to punish these shares. I guess many have forgotten that these firms will continue to post strong profit results – oil trades at $103 per barrel for goodness sakes. These stocks trade between 5-8 times earnings and are posting high double-digit profit growth.

In fact, there are a number of stocks and entire sectors that trade at attractive valuations, it’s just investors must have a great deal of patience and resolve during times such as these.

Market Activity for September 9, 2008

Oil touched $102 per barrel yesterday, before closing at $103.26 – down 2.90% -- as concern over a global economic slowdown has increased in recent days.

OPEC’s spokesman -- contradicting yesterday’s comments from the Saudi Oil Minister who stated inventories are “healthy” and the market is “well balanced” – is saying this morning that there is a “huge oversupply” and they’ll cut production by 500,000 barrels per day. They have obviously succumbed to pressure from Iran and Venezuela – two of whom are at the least proxies for a Russian voice within the cartel. In reality, Russia should have been granted membership this indecorous group long ago as they run things much like a mafia anyway..

And one more point on crude and the market, I doubt anyone would have thought stocks (as measured by the S&P 500) would be down 3.3% (and barely above the multi-year low set on July 15) as the price of oil has plunged 31% since July 3 and the dollar has rallied big time -- even if the current price of crude remains elevated. But while it looks like all hell has broken loose we have to acknowledge to some extent that heretofore commodity-heavy hedge funds are causing some adjustments.

Hedge funds were riding the commodity gravy train, and who could have blamed them; the Fed’s easy money policy was signaling to those with a traders’ mentality to do just that. But now that the CRB is off by 24% and oil down heavily from the peak, the unwinding of those trades are causing havoc.

Look, we are not out of the woods yet, and maybe quite a way from it; there are a plethora of uncertainties out there – as we talk about nearly each day – and a number of them are capable of creating troubles at any time. But we could also find, a few weeks out, that stocks begin to climb as investors turn their attention to attractive long-term valuations and away from focusing on the anticipation of a potential train wreck.

On the economic front, the Commerce Department reported wholesale inventories rose 1.4% in July and as expected sales declined; they slipped 0.3% in July.

This decline in sales is very normal as activity was robust over the previous four months – up 26% at an annualized rate.

Further, sales were largely hurt by petroleum sales. Excluding petro, merchant wholesaler sales climbed 0.8% in July and are up 12.8% over the past six months at an annual rate – 12% three-months annualized.

We’ll note that machinery sales were also weak, falling 3.7% in July. However, this segment had been on fire, up 22% annualized over the previous three months, and these big-ticket items are volatile. One has to expect a decline in machinery sales after this activity. I suspect they’ll bounce back as the energy industry continues to hum and incentives to increase business equipment remain in effect through year end.

With regard to the impact on GDP, the rise in wholesale inventories – twice as much as expected – offers good evidence business-retail inventories will be stronger-than-estimated (we get that number next week) and we may see this result in another upward revision to the Q2 GDP report.

The inventory-to-sales ratio did move up but remains at an extremely low level historically, as the chart below illustrates.

Important point, automotive inventories alone rose 2.3% in July, but last week’s auto sales data showed inventories were trimmed substantially due to incentives that helped August sales activity. I’d look for wholesale and overall business inventories to move back to a record low when the August number is released, which provides a strong indication the production needed to rebuild stockpiles will keep overall economic growth positive.


In a separate report, the National Association of Realtors stated pending home sales for July fell 3.2%, breaking a very nice trend that had this figure up 32% at an annual rate over the previous three months. Pending sales in the West plunged 10.6% and 7.5% in the Northeast. The South region was unchanged from the prior month and the Midwest posted an increase of 2.8%

Mortgage spreads, until the past couple of days, remained historically wide and this hasn’t helped the housing market. After the Treasury Department’s decision to take the mortgage GSEs into conservatorship that has changed as spreads have narrowed and mortgage rates will fall substantially next week. Still, this won’t solve things as those that put little-to-no money down, or do not have a meaningful down payment will find little help outside of the FHA program.

The big issue with housing is a speculative bubble has been burst in many regions and the decline in prices will simply run its course until the overhang of home supply is absorbed. Once buyers get a sense that prices have bottomed, sales will begin to ramp up in a consistent manner. It will just take time, there is nothing the government or anyone else can do about it.

What can be done for the economy as a whole is for Congress and the next administration to reduce tax rates on incomes and business, make permanent increased current-year write-down allowances and bonus depreciation schedules, and keep the rates on capital and dividend returns unchanged at the least. This will do three things:
One, it will restore investor confidence and thus drive equity prices higher.
Two, it will keep the boost we’ve seen in capital spending over the past few months alive, which will boost GDP and drive future productivity gains via the new equipment.
Three, it will lead to job creation as small business is this economy’s largest job creator – remember than two-thirds of those in the top federal tax bracket is small business. All three of these factors will have a beneficial effect on housing, over time.

It will also help if the Fed learns from this harsh lesson not to recklessly push interest rate to levels that encourage the behavior that led to the housing excesses we are now watching correct. Keeping fed funds at 2.0% or below for the three years that ran November 2001 – November 2004 was a grave mistake. Hindsight is 20/20, but we were calling for the Fed to raise rates at the end of 2004, as longer-term readers may recall, as it was evident the economy was running on most cylinders by the end of 2003.

We’re without an economic release today, but will get back to it tomorrow with the July trade balance, August import prices and initial jobless claims.

Have a great day!


Brent Vondera, Senior Analyst

Daily Insight

U.S. stocks climbed yesterday, on the view that the government takeover of the mortgage GSEs (government sponsored entities) will stabilize the global financial system battered by half a trillion in write-downs since August 2007.

The market actually held onto most of the early session’s gains – although it didn’t look that way by midday as the chart below illustrates – all sectors but energy and basic materials enjoyed a nice day with financials, consumer discretionary and industrials jumping between 2.4% and 4.7%.


Market Activity for September 8, 2008

Advancer whipped decliners on the NYSE by a 30-to-1 margin and volume was pretty strong as 1.7 billion shares traded on the Big Board.

The S&P 500 is still 19% below the October 9 all-time high, but we’ve bounced back to 4.5% above the multi-year low set on July 15 – it will be important to remain above that mark. Even if we do, investors will likely need to lean on patience as the next short-term event is Hurricane Ike and longer-term the election.

Oil prices have moved back to the $104 per barrel handle this morning (for the first time since April) on news the Saudi Oil Minister stated inventories are “healthy” and the market is “well-balanced” at the cartel members’ meeting. OPEC is expected to keep production unchanged. While this is a big plus, weather-related events do threaten the welcome trend in crude prices. If Hurricane Ike maintains its current speed it is expected to keep south of major oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and we could test $100 per barrel. If it does not, all bets are off.

On the economic front, the Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit rose half as much as expected in July rising $4.6 billion for the month, which represents the smallest increase this year – the financial press will focus on this point.

However, while the media will cite stricter lending conditions, leading one to believe credit is hardly available, we’ll note a reading of this nature is not unusual especially following several months of strong increases – which was the case in the prior six months of the year. What helped to drag the figure lower was the slump in July auto sales as gasoline prices jumped and consumers shunned SUVs and trucks.

For sure credit standards have tightened, but is this a bad thing? – especially in light of the fact that there have been little-to-no standards at all over the previous couple of years. I saw one report quote someone as saying the consumer is “stuck between a rock and a hard place,” but it is not because the availability of credit has disappeared, but more because real income growth has been hurt by accelerating rates of inflation and the ancillary effects of higher energy prices, even if those costs have come down of late.

Credit spreads have widened, thus the cost of money is higher than it otherwise would be with benchmark interest rates at their currently low levels but this latest report on consumer credit showed the cost of money actually fell for car loans – the average interest rate for new car loans fell to 3.31% in July from 5.49% in June as dealers offered incentives. For those with strong credit scores sub-1% financing is available. The loan-to-value ratio rose, not exactly a situation that takes place in an environment with which credit is scarce.

While financial institutions have become more cautious from an overall perspective, things have hardly progressed to the point that we need to worry credit has dried up and thus the economy will grind to a halt as a direct result.

In fact I would take a more optimistic view – and I’m not being Pollyannaish here as you all know I’ve got my concerns – as we’ve seen the consumer credit-to-disposable income ratio ease slightly even as the Fed continues to subsidize debt via their easy money policy. It’s saying something when this figure flattens out or dips slightly even as interest rates remain historically low – it’s a long-term plus that credit standards have become more reasonable.

So we have the media that is not happy when credit expands “too much,” for fear the consumer is spending beyond his/her means. Yet, when the borrowing figures rise less-than-expected, that isn’t good either. I would say the economy is adjusting to the realities of the economic environment just fine overall, even if is unpleasant during such periods as stocks struggle to gain ground and these adjustments make for trying times.

Mortgage Spreads Narrow

The temporary government take-over of Fannie and Freddie certainly helped stocks yesterday, as it also helped to bring mortgage rates lower. The yields on Fannie Mae mortgage-backed securities fell 40 basis points, narrowing to 150 basis points over the 10-year Treasury – that spread was 190 basis points on Friday and widened to 212 basis points in early August. This means the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will come down to a level that more closely mirrors the historic average, relative to Treasury rates. When these rates adjust to this reality next week we’ll be able to provide a chart of this picture.

Looks Like We Have a Race

Game on in the race for the White House as both the polls and pay-to-play Intrade has either McCain pulling away or the race narrowing.

Polls (of likely voters) show McCain is up by 5-10 points over Obama. But forget these polls; they can be wrong up to the final day as we found out in 2004. Pay-to-play Intrade betting has McCain gaining momentum, making a game of it. Obama remains in the lead according to this source, but the McCain surge is significant and one person is directly responsible – Sarah Palin.

The charts below show you pay 46 cents and get a buck if McCain wins. Pay 53 cents and get a buck if Obama wins.

Hard telling how things will play out, but the important thing with regard to the market and economy is that this tightening has helped ease the worry over tax rate changes, even if just slightly. This new surge, if you will, has caused the Obama campaign to state they may just defer their plan to raise taxes on income, capital and dividends. While politicians say a lot during a campaign, and do something entirely different when in office (no matter the party), this change may give investors a little solace – now that gives me something to believe in.

This morning we get pending home sales for July and wholesale inventories. Pending home sales will likely show a decline as the figure has jumped 32% at an annual rate the past three readings.
On wholesale inventories, we’ve got to expect the underlying sales data will slip after four months of huge sales growth that has sent the inventory-to-sales ratio to an all-time low. Merchant wholesaler sales jumped 26% at an annual pace over the past four readings and one should expect a pull-back in sales as a result.

Have a great day!


Brent Vondera, Senior Analyst

Daily Insight

U.S. stocks didn’t take kindly to the large increase in the unemployment rate as the benchmark indices began the morning session down roughly 1.5% across the board. However, the market reversed course in the afternoon as people realized, while the economy has lost jobs for eight-straight months, the losses remain mild relative to the typical labor-market downturn.

In addition, most of Thursday’s decline a significant move, was in anticipation of this employment report as the jobless claims data offered an indication losses would continue. Point is most of the damage due to this event occurred on Thursday.

Also, possibly helping to spark the reversal was a report from Barton Biggs – a well-known market strategist – that stocks are “pretty close to a bottom” and can mount a “powerful” rally from here. Although, we’ve heard this from Mr. Biggs before, only then to see stocks make new multi-year lows. (This is not meant to disparage Biggs, whom I admire, just stating the fact.)

Market Activity for September 5, 2008
The chart below shows the strong rebound from the day’s low point – up 2.00% from that intraday bottom.


Financial, consumer staple and basic material shares led the rally – financials were up 3.23%, consumer staples added 1.00% and materials 1.13%. The worst-performing group was utility shares, down 1.75%.

On the economic front, the Labor Department reported the economy shed 84,000 payroll jobs in August, which was a bit higher than expected but meaningfully less than the whisper range of between a 100,000 -110,000 decline.


That said the previous months’ job-loss figures were revised up. Prior to these revisions the monthly job-loss average year-to-date was 66,000. That average has moved to minus 75,000 per month due to these adjustments.

Again, the economy lost 84,000 payroll positions in August – according to the initial estimate at least – as the majority of these losses where in manufacturing and business services. Manufacturing, lost 61,000 and business services shed 53,000. (I’ll note, most of the manufacturing decline came from the motor vehicle and parts segment of goods-producing industries as auto-land employment declined 39,000 last month.)

Interestingly, construction lost only 8,000, which is a major improvement relative to the past few months – we’d averaged a decline 41,000 monthly construction jobs prior to this report year-to-date. The bright spots remained education and health services, adding 55,000 combined (38,000 pick up from health services and 16,000 in the education sector).

The unemployment rate jumped to 6.1% from 5.7% in July and is higher by a full 1.7 percentage points since hitting a multi-year low of 4.4% in March 2007. Although, I think it is safe to say that that low-point for unemployment was a bit artificial as it was the former (as opposed to the current easing campaign) very easy monetary policy stance by the Fed that led to housing-industry excesses and the big jump in construction employment as a result. It is more appropriate in my view to gauge the current increase in unemployment to the 5.00% level reached prior to those excesses totally taking hold – which is still a significant rise that amounts to roughly 1.6 million in jobs losses – this includes the self-employed.

The civilian labor force (those currently employed or looking for work) rose 250,000 in August, while household employment declined 342,000. So, we had 250,000 new entries – those looking for work – which is why the unemployment rate shot up to 6.1% as the labor market lost jobs in addition to those new entries. To add, much of the rise in the unemployment rates over the past few months was due to the teenage segment of the report. Not so in August as it was all adults.

(Just to clarify for new readers, there are two reports that encompass the monthly jobs figures. One is the establishment, or payroll, survey. This is the number you see in the headlines and this is where the 84,000 jobs lost in August came from. It is a survey of 400,000 businesses. The second is the household survey, this is the figure that is used to calculate the unemployment rate – it’s a survey of 60,000 households and includes the self-employed.)


Average hourly earnings accelerated to 3.6% on a year-over-year basis, from 3.4% in July. This is quite helpful and good to see a slight acceleration. Another positive from the report, and not touched by most, was the percentage of private companies adding jobs rose to 48.9%, the highest in many months. Not sure this is the start of a trend, but it’s something to watch for indication the labor market scenario may flatten out in the coming months.

What does this job’s report say for monetary policy? It increases the likelihood Bernanke and Co. will actually cut their benchmark fed funds rate – that’s right, I said cut. This would prove to be a very large mistake if in fact they do so – in my personal opinion --, but their flawed Phillips Curve models will point them in that direction with the unemployment rate jumping to 6.1%. (For additional perspective, the current unemployment rate matches the 30-year average, but the Fed will take notice to the jump from 4.4% last year and possibly think they have a green light to reduce rates without sparking inflation. Not saying this will happen, just that it wouldn’t surprise me if it did.)

The economy is not in terrible shape even though these jobs reports are less than encouraging. A number of sectors continue to show nice progress and from an overall perspective just look at business sales (a chart we show regularly), which remain on an upward trajectory rising 6.5% year-over-year. What we are seeing within the labor market is a housing and auto sector drag that is causing firms to cut jobs within goods-producing industries – that’s where the pressure is coming from.

However, for the auto-sector at least, the latest auto report showed incentives are clearing inventories and leading to a mild increase in sales – even if they remain depressed from a historical perspective. There is evidence however, that auto production will extend upon August’s increase (the data we saw on Wednesday has changed my mind in this regard). Housing will remain weak for sometime, but a little boost from the auto sector will do a lot to keep manufacturing activity near or slightly above the expansion/contraction cut line. Many segments within the industrial sector remain upbeat. The Fed’s models though will likely push them in the wrong direction in my view at this time. We shall see.

Fannie and Freddie

The big news of the weekend came from Hank Paulson and the Treasury Department, stating the two housing GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be placed in conservatorship – which means the government, via the Federal Housing and Finance Agency (FHFA), will take them over and shore them up until the housing market stabilizes. This was not triggered for fear of imminent collapse – both have capital that is above the requirement, but further housing-sector losses would test that capital position in time and this was the furthest point from the election, yet after the conventions, to take such action. Prior to this, Paulson’s hope was that simply talking of a government backstop would calm markets; alas, that strategy only made things worse.

The terms of the plan will be to eliminate dividends on common shares and at least suspend dividends on the preferred. Interest and principal will continue to be paid on the subordinated debt and one would expect over the next few days for mortgage-backed bonds to perform well.

The Treasury will extend their credit facility to both Fannie and Freddie to $100 billion each in order to make sure they maintain a positive net worth. The Treasury will also receive $1 billion of senior preferred stock and 10% interest on the stake. As a condition, the two GSEs will have to shrink their portfolios, not to exceed $850 billion as of December 31, 2009 and shall decline 10% per year until it reaches $250 billion. (Currently, Fannie’s portfolio stands at $758 billion.) The point of the December 2009 timeline is that this is a relatively safe bet the housing woes will have run their course by this point. Longer-term this will be a very good thing because if they are currently too big to fail, then the logical solution would be to shrink these behemoths. I do believe this plan to shrink their portfolios must first be approved by Congress, so it’s not official just yet.

Stock futures are up big on the news so the effort by Treasury will result in at least short-term market strength.

Have a great day!

Brent Vondera, Senior Analyst

Daily Insight

U.S. stocks tumbled yesterday after the weekly report on jobless claims showed the figure is not abating; some had hoped once adjustments to the government’s program to extend benefits began to set in the reading would ease. Now that the figure remains above the 400k level, even as the Bureau of Labor Statistics says the response to that government program has peaked, it’s leading many to believe claims are simply rising because job losses are accelerating, not solely because of the increase in eligibility.

This morning we get the jobs data for August – a decline will mark the eight-straight month of losses, although they have been mild to this point averaging just 66,000 per month. The jobless claims numbers offers pretty good evidence those losses will move to 80,000-100,000 per month.

Up to now the labor market weakness has been more about the lack of new openings rather than layoffs on a large scale. I think the situation will remain that way, but it does look like we’ll get a couple of months here and there that cause people to worry layoffs will rise substantially.

Market Activity for September 4, 2008
All 10 major industry groups got hammered yesterday, with financial and basic material shares performing the worst down 4.69% and 3.83%, respectively. The best performers, of course on a relative basis, were consumer staple and utility shares, which lost 1.13% and 1.21%, respectively – no surprise that those sectors were pressured the least when concerns over global growth arise.

It’s been interesting to watch commodities – as measured by the Commodity Research Bureau – fall 21% since July 15, yet stocks have remained essentially flat. The CRB is down 8% since August 21 and the broad market has down as well, off by 3.2% since that date. Ask someone two months ago how stocks would perform with this level of decline in commodity prices and there’s little doubt most would say a rally would ensue – myself included. But global growth concerns have taken over, which makes it tough for stocks to catch a bid. The S&P 500 remains 2% above the July 15 multi-year low.

And speaking of commodities, crude-oil price fell yesterday even as the weekly energy report showed stockpiles decreased by 1.9 million barrels in the week ended August 29. Again, worries over global growth have now taken over to offset supply concerns, hence the dip in prices even though crude inventories are now six million barrels below the 12-month average.

Expectations were for a 450,000 barrel increase in supplies. I’m not sure what logic drove that estimate, but one wonders where these analysts have been over the past week – maybe they believed Mr.Gustav would be kind enough to deliver supplies to the ports and terminals.

In international news, both the ECB (European Central Bank) and the Bank of England decided to keep their benchmark interest rates unchanged (4.25% for ECB and 5.00% for BOE) even as EU growth has flat-lined and many call for them to cut. Yet, inflation remains elevated in the Eurozone – close to a 16-year high – so they are holding steady for now.

The relevance of this weak EU growth with regard to the dollar is that caused traders to question why exactly they had pushed the euro to such a lofty level – some of those funds have flowed into the dollar as a result. Still, the interest rate differential remains in the EU’s favor, but many assume it is just a matter of time until the ECB does in fact cut their benchmark rate and thus narrow that differential.

Still, as we’ve talked about for a couple of weeks now we need to see the Dollar Index hit 80 before getting to excite. For now, we’ve got a great trend going.


On the economic front, the Labor Department reported that Q2 productivity surged 4.3% at an annual rate, revised up from the previous estimate of 2.2%. A large upward revision in output combined with a downward revision to hours worked led to the significant upward revision to productivity. (Productivity measures the increase in output per hour worked.)

Just to put this reading into perspective, a number above 2.5% is considered large. Non-financial sector productivity came in at a rip-roaring 5.6% annual rate. That reflected a 3.8% rise in output and a 1.7% fall in hours worked.

These levels of productivity are hugely beneficial, especially now as we deal with energy prices that have climbed roughly 50% across-the-board over the past 12 months. U.S. productivity has increased a powerful 3.38% over the past 12 months.

Unfortunately, within the manufacturing sector, productivity declined 2.2% at an annual rate as output fell 3.7%, while hours worked dropped just 1.5%. This marked the largest quarterly decline in manufacturing productivity since a 2.5% decline in Q2 1989. Unit labor costs in the sector jumped 6.2% -- boosted by a 9.0% rise within the durable goods sector.

In total, compensation per hour has increased 4.0% over the past 12 months, which is helpful but lags the current pace of inflation.

In a separate report, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ended August 30 rose 15,000 to 444,000. For the reading to remain at these levels, it obviously points to more job losses ahead. Some, including myself, were anticipating this figure to fall as the government’s program to increase unemployment assistance wore off, or at least that the response from this program had peaked. The fact that the reading has not come lower illustrates there’s a good possibility we’ll see monthly job losses increase to 80-100k over the next several months. (In the seven months in which the job market has shed positions, we’ve averaged 66,000 monthly losses.)

The four-week average of jobless claims did tick down, but just barely, and remains elevated. I will point out, however, that when you view the chart below keep in mind that the labor market is 12 million stronger than it was 10 years ago and 32 million stronger than it was 20 years back. Point is, jobless claims of 445,000 is not what it used to be at lower job-market levels. Nevertheless, this is well-higher than we want it to be.


Lastly, the Institute for Supply Management issued its latest look at the service-sector as its nonmanufacturing composite index (which equal weights the survey’s business activity, employment, new orders and supplier delivery indexes) showed activity accelerated a bit. The reading rose to 50.6 in August from 49.5 in July. Over the past six months the index has averaged 50.3 – 50 is the cut line between expansion and contraction.


The business activity index rose nicely to 51.6 from 49.6 in the previous month.


The employment index fell to 45.1 from 47.1, which is another sign today’s jobs report may come in weaker than expected.


The prices paid index fell to 72.9 from the extreme level of 80.8 yet remains higher than the average of the past two quarters. A year ago the prices paid index was running in a range of 60-65.


All eyes will be on the August jobs report, released at 7:30 CT. We’ll also get the mortgage delinquency figure for the second quarter at 9:00.

Have a great weekend!

Brent Vondera, Senior Analyst

Daily Insight

U.S. stocks ended mixed as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite fell for a third-straight session, while the Dow Industrials managed to close higher helped by shares of Home Depot, United Technologies, Proctor & Gamble and Chevron.

Information technology shares put pressure on the tech-laden NASDAQ and basic material, energy and those tech shares kept the S&P 500 down.

We’ve been trapped in a trading range between 1215 and 1450 on the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year and over the past month stuck between 1250 and 1300. The market doesn’t know what to do. Multiples are not high enough to send us much lower – based on what is currently known – and there are simply too many uncertainties lurking to propel the index out of this range.

The nearest term event will likely be the election. At least then we’ll have a good sense of where tax rates are going as after-tax return expectations on capital, dividends and labor income (small business consists two-thirds of the top federal income tax bracket) are necessary to assess the correct market multiple. Disposable, or after-tax, income growth is also hugely important right now, and the tax-rate uncertainty raises an issue here as well. Until then, we’ll just have to lean on patience.

Market Activity for September 3, 2008

That said, there are many individual stocks that trade at attractive P/E levels, but uncertainty is a terrible thing for stocks and these opportunities often get ignored in such an atmosphere. There are also entire sectors that look cheap in my view, as the S&P 500 index that tracks tech shares trades at 19 times earnings and industrials trade at 15 times. Energy stocks are back down to 10 times trailing earnings and 9 times this year’s profit expectations as many focus on oil’s recent decline and forget that these firms will make a lot of money at $110/barrel oil. The good news is the major indices seem to have found a bottom – knock on wood.

Yesterday we mentioned how all will be focused on the direction oil trades as the weekly energy report will surely show a big drop in inventories due to Gulf-rig shutdowns and closure of the LOOP. In addition, 13 refineries in the area were shut down completely and 10 others ran at reduced rates due to Gustav. The problem is I forgot that due to the holiday the weekly energy report, which is usually released on Wednesday, will be pushed back by a day. So, we’ll have to wait a couple of hours still for that report.

In any event, it does seem that production will resume quickly as the hurricane did very little damage to production infrastructure -- we should see stockpiles rebuilt in short order.

On the economic front, the Commerce Department reported factory orders rose 1.3% in July, beating the 1.0% estimate. This followed a large 2.1% increase in June that was revised up from the initial estimate of 1.7%. That’s a meaningful revision and may push the second-quarter GDP reading a bit higher when we get the final revision at the end of this month.

For this quarter, the July reading puts the period off to a good start and reinforces our view that business spending (capital expenditures) will provide an offset to what will likely be weak consumer activity (in real terms) during the third quarter. For instance, the non-defense capital goods, ex-aircraft, component of this report – which is the business capital spending number – jumped 2.5% in July.

It will be very interesting to watch the trend in capital spending as this is on top of three months of pretty strong growth for this component. I’ll note: the rebound in capital spending corresponds directly to the increase in current-year business write-off allowance and bonus depreciation the president signed into law back in May. Unfortunately, the way I understand the legislation, this will expire in 2009 as he had to drag Congress kicking and screaming to add it to the tax-rebate bill and could only manage a very short-term incentive boost as a result.

In terms of overall factory orders, they have risen for five-straight months now and in dollar terms stand at the highest level since the series began on an NAICS (simply put, a new classification system) basis in 1992.

Importantly, the unfilled orders figures is up 29 of the past 30 months and also stands at the highest level since the series began reporting on an NAICS basis. One would expect, outside of normal fluctuations, orders will remain on an upward trajectory for at least the next few months based on this heightened unfilled orders figure.

The weakness within the report came from high-tech equipment, specifically computer orders -- down 11% in July and 4.8% from July 2007.

In a separate release we received Challenger’s Job Cut Announcement survey (this is comprised by the executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas), which stated that the rate of layoffs slowed in August as they reported 88,730 job cuts were announced -- 103,312 were announced in July. However, while that number was lower than their July figure, job cut announcements were nearly 12% higher relative to August 2007. This is not seasonally adjusted data.

According to this report, one-third of the 88,736 in August came from the automotive and government sectors.

In other news the Fed released its regional economic survey known as the Beige Book. This report is released every six weeks and to be honest is a bit outdated, but is worth a read nonetheless. It found:

• Consumer spending was slow in most districts and many districts showed a pattern toward discount stores and lower-priced brands. (I think we should expect consumer activity to exhibit a two quarter respite after pretty good numbers over the past few months and inflation has cut into real income growth)
  
• Manufacturing was weak and declining in most districts, but improved in KC and Minneapolis (this doesn’t totally match with the ISM reports, which show things are a bit more optimistic within the sector)
  
• Residential real estate remained soft in most districts, save KC (no surprise there)
  
• All districts reported continued upward price pressures, with Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Dallas indicating businesses have stepped up the pass-through of higher costs. (This matches with what both small and large business price surveys along with the ISM and NAPM (factory surveys) reports have shown. Further, the Cleveland Fed’s Trimmed-Mean CPI, which takes out the most volatile components, and non-energy CPI are both at 17-year highs)
  

One obviously hopes the large and rapid decline in energy prices will ease price pressures, but the more data one studies the more it paints the picture that the 48.5% rise in crude, the 41.5% in gasoline and the 45% in diesel prices over the past year have become at least partially embedded.

This morning we get a number of data releases, with the final revision to Q2 productivity, weekly jobless claims and the ISM service index for August receiving the most attention.

Have a great day!


Brent Vondera, Senior Analyst

Daily Insight

U.S. stocks reversed course as a substantial early-session rally fizzled, succumbing to losses within the energy and basic material sectors; driving the broad-market into negative territory by mid-day was deterioration within the tech-sector. With all three of those sectors losing between 1.4% and 4.6%, and no real help from anywhere else save financials and consumer discretionary shares, the market could only go lower.

Energy stocks got drilled, pun intended, as oil prices shed $5.75, or 4.98%, to close the session at 109.71. Crude had been down as much as 8.8% yesterday, but a roughly 5% decline ended up being plenty to clock the sector. Oil is down to $108.32 this morning, the lowest level since early April.

Energy, basic material and information technology shares combine to make up 33.2% of the S&P 500.

Market Activity for September 2, 2008
As the chart below depicts, stocks started the day much higher after Hurricane Gustav’s impact proved to be much less than initially feared, sparing drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and the New Orleans’ levees mostly held. However, things nonetheless fell apart as information technology, industrial and health-care shares erased early gains providing zero offset to the basic material and energy stock woes.

The S&P 500 began the session up 1.6% at the get go, but ended up losing 2.0% from that intraday high. The broad market declined 0.41% relative to the opening price. (The yellow line represents that opening mark.)


This morning, as the day progresses, it will be interesting to see how the oil market prices things in as we get the weekly energy report. Supplies will surely drop as the LOOP (Louisiana Offshore Oil Port) remains closed and Gulf production was shut down. Too, we have Hurricane Ike that looks to be making its way to the area.

On the economic front, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that manufacturing activity (on a national level) remains right at that dividing line between expansion and contraction. The reading came in at 49.9 for August and has hovered there for six months as the average for this period is 49.5.

The fact that the survey failed to show a pick up is decent proof the large acceleration in the Chicago-manufacturing reading (which we touched on yesterday) was mostly due to an increase in auto production – U.S. auto production is a large component within that regional survey. Normally, this would be fine, but since vehicle sales remain subdued, one shouldn’t expect auto production to have much staying power. That said, it is remarkable the manufacturing sector – from a national perspective -- remains solidly at the 50 level even as housing weighs heavily on the sector. (Again, above 50 marks expansion and below that mark, contraction – a reading very close to 50 on either side is a push.)

In terms of the sub-indices, which are hugely important to watch as they give evidence of future ISM readings, most remain subdued but a couple did improve from the July readings. For instance, the new orders index rose to 48.3 in August from 45.0 in July. Backlogs of orders increased slightly to 43.5 from 43.0.

The production index did slip from the July reading but remained in expansion mode, coming in at 52.1 in August after 52.9 in July. Inventories remained below 50 for the second-straight month, but did rise, coming in at 49.3 after July’s 45.0 – one watches this reading to gauge the effect inventories have on GDP. However, the customer inventory reading hit 54.5 – a 7.5-point jump from July. A reading over 50 for this index shows that respondents believe their customers’ inventory levels are too high. (This illustrates the cautious nature of business more than anything else as we know that inventory levels in a broad-based sense are at historic lows)

New export orders jumped to 57.0 from 54.0 in July.


The prices paid index has decelerated nicely, yet remains elevated.


Bottom line: the report was a decent one as the headline ISM reading remained very near the 50 level, yet it doesn’t give us a sense the manufacturing sector is ready to engage in rip-roaring activity anytime soon. That big increase in new export orders is a great sign though as many have worried economic weakness in Europe will cause export activity to ease. This reading shows other regions of the globe are filling the void.

It is good to see the prices paid reading come lower, but we’ll need to see continued deceleration to ease broad-based inflation concerns.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department reported that construction spending fell 0.6% in July after two months of gains. A 2.3% decline in private residential construction in the month led the overall figure lower. Non-residential private-sector construction (commercial) was also lower, falling 0.7%, marking the first decline for this figure in more than a year. (Private-sector residential construction is down 27.5% year-over-year. Commercial construction is up 16.0% since July 2007, just to mention the contrast)

July marked the first month since January 2007 in which private-sector commercial construction has not helped to offset residential weakness.



The public-sector did help to prop up the overall reading as public-sector residential construction rose 3.4% in July and non-residential (boosted by transportation and schools) rose 1.4%.

I’ll note, however, even though residential construction remains mired as inventory levels are hugely elevated, we have seen some encouraging signs as the degree of decline has waned over the past three months. For instance, single-family new homes sales fell at an 18.5% annual pace over the past three months – about half the 35.3% decline of the past 12 months. Pending home sales – those existing home sale contracts that have been signed, but not yet closed -- have jumped 32.2% at an annual rate since April, compared to the 12.1% decline over the past 12 months.

The pig in the python is foreclosures, as it will take some time still for this figure to peak. U.S. loans past due have increased to 6.35% of the total mortgage market vs. 4.84% a year ago. (These will not all turn into to foreclosures as this reading accounts for all mortgage loans just 30 days past due, but the number is nonetheless higher) Prime loans past due hit 3.71% as of the latest data. Subprime loans past due hit 18.79% for that universe. That is up from 2.58% and 13.77%, respectively.

This morning we get the latest factory orders report, which should show business spending continued to trend higher. This is the big bright spot from a domestic GDP standpoint (outside of trade) as we’ve seen signs that the business side will offset any consumer weakness in the current quarter.

Have a great day!


Brent Vondera, Senior Analyst

Daily Insight

• U.S. stocks ended a three-day winning streak on Friday as the Commerce Department showed personal spending was weak during July and incomes declined for the first time in three years. More than anything though, Friday’s down market was more a function of traders’ unwillingness to take on additional long positions considering the increased uncertainty that Hurricane Gustav wrought.
  
  That personal income figure was really more a function of the government’s rebate check program coming to an end as this caused government transfer payments to fall substantially. The fundamental components of the data continue to look pretty good, as we’ll touch on below. (Real income growth remains a chief concern, but the income data looked much better in July than the headline number would lead one to believe.) Further, it’s tough to blame economic data for Friday’s stock-market decline considering the most important regional manufacturing survey showed activity was just shy of robust last month.
  
  Market Activity for August 29, 2008
  

All 10 major industry groups ended the week on a down note, with information technology, utility and industrial shares leading the declines. Financials were the best-performing sector on a relative basis, falling just 0.59%.

Crude-oil prices have plunged this morning, falling 6.30%, or $7.27 per barrel, as Hurricane Gustav failed to strengthen to the level many had feared and thus oil and gasoline production should resume in pretty quick order. We won’t know the extent of the damage until tomorrow – firms will get out and assess rigs today – but there’s a strong possibility we escaped major damage. That said, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) has been closed for a few days and likely won’t be able to begin taking shipments again until Thursday, so this will have a meaningful effect on stockpiles in the very short term.

As the chart below illustrates, we’ve enjoyed a welcome 25% decline in oil prices over the past six weeks, yet remain 43% higher from the this time last year and 24% higher from date the Fed began to aggressively ease with their January 22 inter-meeting cut. (The annualized figures are meaningless for the purposes of this graph, so pay not attention to those readings, if you can even read them.)

It’s been amazing to watch how emotion-driven trading has turned. Just six weeks ago the slightest disturbance would lead to large moves higher as crude hit $145 per barrel in mid July. Now, even when a large production disturbance occurs, so long as it doesn’t reach the worst-case assumption, traders push crude down 4-7%. This is a huge development for the consumer and profit margins.

Helping this trend out is some encouraging signs from Congress regarding the removal of energy production restrictions; let’s hope the recent decline in prices doesn’t cause a reversal. Further, the pro-drill candidate continues to make progress in the polls, which likely has an effect on traders’ mentality as well.

I’ll caution though, OPEC meets next week and you know what that means with crude 25% off its high. Yep, they’re likely to push through a production cut, especially since Russia will put pressure on them to do so. (Russia is not a member of OPEC, but they do have strong, and concerning, ties to Iran and Venezuela – regimes that very much depend on the high price of oil to remain relevant.)

On the economic front, the Commerce Department reported personal income fell 0.7% in July. This decline was due to the rebate-check effect. Recall back in June how we explained the big jump in May income growth was due – largely – to government payments and that there would be some blowback effect as the numbers were adjusted to this one-time situation. Well, here it is.

The large 17.6% decline in the “other” component of government transfer payments moved the overall figure lower. However, the components that really matter – compensation, wage and salary, proprietor’s income, rental income and dividend income all posted decent-to-strong results.

Compensation was up 0.3% in July and 4.0% year-over-year (YOY)

• Compensation was up 0.3% in July and 4.0% year-over-year (YOY)
• Wage and salaries gained 0.3%, up 4.1% over the past 12 months
• Proprietor’s income rose 0.4% -- nonfarm proprietor’s income up 3.2% YOY, accelerating to 8.9% at an annual rate last three months
• Rental income jumped 7.2% in July and has soared 50.6% YOY
• Dividend income was up 0.6% in July and up 8.2% YOY
• Disposable (after-tax) income is up a very healthy 5.8% YOY

So the income components that matter show pretty nice trends, although for the labor-income related segments the growth has not been enough to keep up with elevated inflation rates. Broadly speaking, disposable income does continue to outpace inflation, which is good.

On the spending side, personal consumption rose 0.2% last month and is up 5.1% YOY and just a bit more six-month annualized. One should expect the pace of spending to ease as inflation eats into the growth of income. Lower commodity prices of late will help, but as we’ve touched on in past letters there is a risk that inflation has become embedded. We’ll just have to see how the data turn out over the next two months.

And speaking of inflation, the gauge tied to this personal spending data showed the PCE deflator (one of the big-three inflation gauges) has increased 4.5% over the past 12 months – a large acceleration from the June year-over-year figure of 4.0%.

The core rate also edged up, coming in at 2.4% YOY – well-above Bernanke’s stated comfort zone of 1%-2%. We’ll admit, as this letter has stated before, a comfort zone of below 1.50% is rather ridiculous as some pricing power is important, but I believe it is worth mentioning that the actual readings continue to blow past his comfort level even if the lower end of the range is silly.


Lastly, the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s survey (tracks Chicago-area manufacturing) came in much stronger than expected, jumping to 57.9 in August from 50.8 in July – a reading above 50 marks expansion and a reading approaching 60 borders on robust.


The sub-indices within the survey were extremely encouraging. The production index jumped to 63.4 from 49.2 in July. New orders rose to 60.2 from 53.5 last month. The order backlog reading rocketed to 63.0 from 45.7.

While these are all very good readings, we’ll need the national reading to confirm this strong rebound before getting too excited – and we’ll get that with the ISM report this morning. Stronger auto production of late likely helped to push this figure higher and since auto sales are relatively weak…well, that’s where the caution comes in. Overall, though the manufacturing sector has remained largely upbeat despite housing’s woes -- and the heretofore drag from the auto sector -- and this reading does offer optimism that the sector will remain in expansion mode. That order backlog reading is also very encouraging.

The prices paid index pulled back, falling to 80.6 from 90.7 in July, but remains very elevated.

Have a great day!


Brent Vondera, Senior Analyst