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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Bond Recap

Treasuries began the day down slightly but really dipped after April’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index came in better than anticipated. The market was anticipating a 18.63% drop in the index that contains the 20 biggest housing markets in the U.S., yesterday’s reading for the month of April showed a drop of only -18.12% from the same period a year ago. It’s kind of interesting to see how little it takes people to get excited these days. The ten-year yield got as high as 3.57% before Consumer Confidence disappointed and Treasuries rallied.

The long end was the underperformer on the day, a change in recent trend, as the curve steepened by 4 bps, the biggest one day steepening since June 18. The Fed will purchase Treasury notes again today, this time in the 10-17 year area. Look for a short term rally in bonds if the auction shows stronger results compared to yesterday.
Cliff J. Reynolds Jr., Junior Analyst

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