Buy your ticket now before Boeing takes off

The Wall Street Journal reports that Boeing (BA) may purchase the 787 Dreamliner operations of Vought Industries. The purchase would bring more of the manufacturing process back in-house, but also marks a first step towards establishing a second assembly line for the Dreamliner.

One of Credit Suisse’s analyst is viewing the transaction as a negative, but I see just the opposite. Sure, the purchase signals to the investment community that Boeing is struggling with their complete change in their manufacturing stragey, but the price of Boeing shares already reflects these difficulties. This negative analyst outlook may, in fact, represent an excellent buying opportunity for the long-term investor.

What I see are growing pains that have to be expected with a drastic shift in strategy. For Boeing, the 787 Dreamliner represents the beginning of a new era that includes the first ever streamlined manufacturing process that reminds many of the assembly line process that revolutionized automobile manufacturing forever.

The most significant change – an in my opinion the biggest reason for the many delays – might be Boeing’s increased use of outside suppliers from Japan, Italy, and the U.S. for the development and manufacturing of the aircraft. This change made Boeing more of a systems integrator instead of a manufacturer. Consequently, this transformation has been met with many unexpected challenges in the design and engineering processes as well as the way it manages its global supply chain.

What makes me bullish on the Boeing (BA) over the next several years?

First, the purchase of Vought’s 787 unit helps Boeing regain more control over its supply chain and manufacturing process. Second, and more importantly, the purchase sets the stage for Boeing to create a second assembly. A second assembly line will help Boeing ramp up production and fill orders that would have otherwise been delayed – and delayed orders lead to a financial penalty against Boeing. A second assembly line that would be outside of Seattle would also send a strong message to the aerospace unions in Seattle.

What makes me more bullish is that Boeing’s order backlog suggests the aircraft has been highly successful. Despite deferrals and cancelations related to the global recession, Boeing’s order backlog equals about seven years of production – that provides a lot of revenue and earnings visibility once production ramps up.

Of course, the problem in the near-term is determining when Boeing will reach full production. On the bright side, patient investors can collect Boeing’s hefty 4% dividend until production gets going at full tilt. With shares trading at just under 9 times future earnings, the pessimism surrounding Boeing may be overdone and we are beginning to reach levels that represent an excellent entry point for long-term investors.

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Peter J. Lazaroff